I'm thrilled that the White Sox acquired Alex Rios. FanGraphs has covered the fact that Rios is still producing the same batted ball data as last year. UZR regularly fluctuates, but it would appear he's still about +10 defensively at CF. Even if both his bat and his glove have declined to a lower level, he's still a very productive centerfielder, and his bat is decent for a corner outfielder. Thus, he is exactly what the White Sox needed moving forward. I see this primarily as a move for 2010 and beyond. He's a bit pricey, but not prohibitively so, and the contract could turn out to have great value. Yes, it's a gamble. But it's a great move, however it turns out.
Kenny Williams has several choices to make. Next year, he'll need a DH and a corner outfielder (or another centerfielder...). He could choose to bolster the infield as well. I'm not sure if they're willing to move Ramirez to the outfield, and I'm not sure if that would be a good idea. How much can Alexei refine his game in the middle infield? His bat looks good there, but can he become more consistent. I'd like to think he can, but maybe the fact that he hasn't tasted the minors is hurting him. He would probably get more defensive coaching in AAA. That just means the White Sox need to coach him aggressively during the season and the spring. Winter ball might be a good option, to keep him ready heading into his apparently customary weak start while working on the glove.
The obvious question marks as far as returning are Thome, Dye, and Podsednik. I think he'll bring back one or two of them, but not all three. The cases for each:
Thome
Cons: He's old and getting older. Thus, decline is to be expected. He can't play any position on the field, meaning that he's a permanent DH. Even so, he needs days off. He's fragile. He's slow. And his high OBP is more and more based solely on walks. While he's been (slightly) more productive this year than last, both of these years have seen a drop-off from his ~.400 wOBA production before that. If he has last year's slow start and then hits his stride like this year, his production will be lower yet. If his bat produces less, then people might start pitching to him more. If he can't punish them, there go his walks. And many people have argued that his walks aren't that valuable when his speed and the team's propensity for grounding into double plays leaves him LOB so often.
Pros: He is still an above average offensive weapon. He has patience, and he can come through with the (very) big hit. Plus, he's a left-handed power bat. Bring back Dye instead, and the heart of your order is Quentin-Dye-Konerko-Beckham-Rios... all righties. While the platoon advantage isn't everything, you'd like to give the opposing manager a reason to use up more relievers, and you'd especially like to not always be at a disadvantage because everyone uses right-handed pitchers. He also might come back for a HUGE discount, since the market for aging, DH-only, three-true-outcomes sluggers hasn't been all that wild lately.
Dye
Pros: He is still a very good bat. He can hit in the heart of the order. He can play the outfield if you need him to, where he still has a plus arm. He's younger than Thome. He wants to stay in Chicago. And despite some aches and pains, he's really quite durable.
Cons: Another RH bat in the middle of the order. He can't play a good right field. And he might be pricey.
Podsednik
Pros: When healthy, he's a spark at the top of the order, the only natural leadoff hitter the White Sox have. He gets on base at a brilliant pace, plays with the heads of pitchers, steals bases, runs the bases, and even lays down bunts. He can handle CF, though he probably belongs in LF. With him, the White Sox offense seems to reach a different level.
Cons: When healthy. So far, it would appear that his new conditioning program* is paying dividends. But his history is not in his favor. Can he stay healthy all year long? With Quentin already an injury question mark in the outfield, can we afford to keep two corner outfielders who might not be around all year? And can Podsednik keep up this production next year? Will his stutter steps, swinging bunts, and speed be able to continue confounding pitchers next year? The cons are that you don't know if you have what you think you have.
*He talked about this program on 670-AM the Score in Chicago right around the time he was called up. He explained that in the past his conditioning has been all-around and general. Apparently, his new trainer had him emphasizing the leg muscles that he relies on for his running game. The idea is that by strengthening and conditioning the RIGHT muscles instead of his body as a whole, he will better prepare himself to run all out day in and day out. It seems to be working, but it's hard to say if it will work long-term or if he's on a lucky health streak.
Other options
Chone Figgins should be available, and he can play the infield or the outfield. He could replace Podsednik at the top of the order and hit from both sides of the plate. He could replace Getz or Podsednik defensively, or he can take 3B if other players shift (Beckham to SS, Ramirez to 2B, LF, or CF). He would give Ozzie speed, defense, and versatility. However, there might be some competition for his services, so he could get more expensive than he should be.
Hideki Matsui
I mentioned him in the blog title. This is today's speclation, and it's not that serious. Matsui could be another option to fill the DH spot. He's four years younger than Thome, and his skill set is similar. Right now, Thome produces more, but that could easily change by next year. What Matsui provides is a left-handed power bat to balance the order; a DH who could play a little OF if we need him to, or he could probably at least adjust to some time at 1B; and hopefully a cheap option, at that. According to MLBTradeRumors today, the Yankees like Matsui but don't think they'll pursue him this offseason. Now, the Yankees don't want him because he can't really play the OF any more, but he can still play the field more than Thome. I'm really just throwing a name out there to represent the idea that we bring in a DH. A lineup like this:
LF Podsednik
3B Beckham
RF Quentin
1B Konerko
DH Matsui
CF Rios
C Pierzynski
SS Ramirez
2B Getz
It could work. Thome can fill the same spot. I'll look into who else might be available. Russell Branyan might be. The only problem with bringing back Dye is the right-handed-ness of the lineup, but he's probably the most consistent option. And he can really play the field if you have to make him.
Okay, I'm looking them up now.
Nick Johnson, who has less power but a high OBP, a left-handed bat, and the ability to play 1B. He can probably handle a little corner OF, but it might not be a good idea.
Carlos Delgado, who's Thome a few years ago. We don't know how much of his bat is left, but it might be a lot. Especially in the Cell.
Adam LaRoche. This one would probably be a Konerko-to-DH move. LaRoche isn't the best bat, but he's pretty good. Another lefty.
Abreu. Vlad. Geoff Jenkins (has he retired?). Hank Blalock. Austin Kearns. Aubrey Huff. Garret Anderson. Matt Holliday... Jason Bay...
Looking forward to the rest of the season, the postseason, the offseason, and next season, all at once!!
01 August 2009
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd...
Let me first say that I view the Peavy trade as primarily a move for the future. At first, I was a little frustrated to be dealing away so many good prospects. But after some reflection, I think this was a FANTASTIC move for Kenny Williams, and I'm starting to think our rebuilding effort is about over, even before it really kicked into high gear.
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
Almost doesn't matter who fills in the blank. We can re-sign Jose, presumably for a lower salary. Freddy might be ready and cheap. Carlos Torres might be ready for a shot. And there are always tons of back-end starters available during the offseason. I'll just throw out a name. Jon Garland. Someone along those lines. Kenny does seem to like building reunions, but Garland is just one of many.
I was reading through a thread at South Side Sox, and several people were discussing an acquistion of Rick Ankiel this offseason. I could see him as a very good fit, capable of fitting into center field or a corner. A fairly good bat, left-handed hitter..
The other acquisition which Kenny has wanted for a long time might finally happen this offseason. And I see this one as the biggest key. Chone Figgins. Free agent Chone Figgins might be a bit more expensive than we'd like him to be, but he would absolutely fit the White Sox's needs perfectly.
We have money coming off the books, and there are some very good ways to spend it.
You see, here's what I think we should do for next year:
C: Pierzynski
1B: Konerko
2B: Getz/Nix platoon, or one of them might claim the job from the other
SS: Beckham
3B: ______ (Figgins!)
LF: Quentin
CF: Ramirez
RF : _____ (Ankiel, or Dye)
DH: Thome (or Dye)
Bench: Castro, Getz/Nix, Podsednik, and whoever (Wise?!?)
Now the question of whether Quentin should play LF or RF is interesting, and it can go either way. I'm placing him in LF tentatively, with the expectation that Podsednik will share time with him and Quentin might share time with Thome.
Now check out this lineup:
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
LF Quentin
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Ankiel
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Quentin and Konerko could switch, depending on the level of the Q factor. Plenty of sliding around possible. This lineup gives you a little less punch without Dye, but it should be a solid lineup with good hitters and plenty of speed. Ozzie would love it. The biggest benefit would be the defense. See the upgrades at SS, 3B, RF, and possibly CF. Here's a version with Dye instead of Ankiel:
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Plus, Figgins could slide into the outfield if Ramirez fails at CF.
3B: Beckham
SS: Ramirez
LF: Figgins (Quentin)
CF: Ankiel (Figgins)
RF: Quentin (Dye)
Podsednik would be available as a pinch runner/pinch hitter/defensive replacement who won't kill your post-substitution lineup, and he'll be a capable regular if one of our frail outfielders (Quentin, Ankiel, maybe Dye) goes down. He's frail himself, so I'm wary of counting on him everyday, but Podsednik/Ramirez/Quentin wouldn't be a terrible outfield, assuming we found some pop for 3B.
Perhaps Dye instead of Thome, although I'm starting to feel that Thome will be around next year.
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
DH Dye
1B Konerko
RF Ankiel
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
We can become true contenders and the AL Central favorites with offseason targets of:
1) Chone Figgins. If we overpay, it would probably be worth it. He's the guy.
2) Bring back Thome and/or Dye.
3) Ankiel or another solid corner outfielder, preferably capable in CF.
4) A back-end starter.
Hopefully Flowers, Jordan Danks, et al will provide us with good depth in the minors, ready to contribute as needed. Our bullpen may or may not need much tweaking.
CP: Jenks
SU: Dotel, Thornton
MR: Pena, Carrasco
LOOGY: Williams?
LR: Torres? Egbert? Nunez?
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
I smell October.
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
Almost doesn't matter who fills in the blank. We can re-sign Jose, presumably for a lower salary. Freddy might be ready and cheap. Carlos Torres might be ready for a shot. And there are always tons of back-end starters available during the offseason. I'll just throw out a name. Jon Garland. Someone along those lines. Kenny does seem to like building reunions, but Garland is just one of many.
I was reading through a thread at South Side Sox, and several people were discussing an acquistion of Rick Ankiel this offseason. I could see him as a very good fit, capable of fitting into center field or a corner. A fairly good bat, left-handed hitter..
The other acquisition which Kenny has wanted for a long time might finally happen this offseason. And I see this one as the biggest key. Chone Figgins. Free agent Chone Figgins might be a bit more expensive than we'd like him to be, but he would absolutely fit the White Sox's needs perfectly.
We have money coming off the books, and there are some very good ways to spend it.
You see, here's what I think we should do for next year:
C: Pierzynski
1B: Konerko
2B: Getz/Nix platoon, or one of them might claim the job from the other
SS: Beckham
3B: ______ (Figgins!)
LF: Quentin
CF: Ramirez
RF : _____ (Ankiel, or Dye)
DH: Thome (or Dye)
Bench: Castro, Getz/Nix, Podsednik, and whoever (Wise?!?)
Now the question of whether Quentin should play LF or RF is interesting, and it can go either way. I'm placing him in LF tentatively, with the expectation that Podsednik will share time with him and Quentin might share time with Thome.
Now check out this lineup:
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
LF Quentin
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Ankiel
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Quentin and Konerko could switch, depending on the level of the Q factor. Plenty of sliding around possible. This lineup gives you a little less punch without Dye, but it should be a solid lineup with good hitters and plenty of speed. Ozzie would love it. The biggest benefit would be the defense. See the upgrades at SS, 3B, RF, and possibly CF. Here's a version with Dye instead of Ankiel:
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Plus, Figgins could slide into the outfield if Ramirez fails at CF.
3B: Beckham
SS: Ramirez
LF: Figgins (Quentin)
CF: Ankiel (Figgins)
RF: Quentin (Dye)
Podsednik would be available as a pinch runner/pinch hitter/defensive replacement who won't kill your post-substitution lineup, and he'll be a capable regular if one of our frail outfielders (Quentin, Ankiel, maybe Dye) goes down. He's frail himself, so I'm wary of counting on him everyday, but Podsednik/Ramirez/Quentin wouldn't be a terrible outfield, assuming we found some pop for 3B.
Perhaps Dye instead of Thome, although I'm starting to feel that Thome will be around next year.
3B Figgins
SS Beckham
DH Dye
1B Konerko
RF Ankiel
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
CF Ramirez
2B Getz/Nix
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
We can become true contenders and the AL Central favorites with offseason targets of:
1) Chone Figgins. If we overpay, it would probably be worth it. He's the guy.
2) Bring back Thome and/or Dye.
3) Ankiel or another solid corner outfielder, preferably capable in CF.
4) A back-end starter.
Hopefully Flowers, Jordan Danks, et al will provide us with good depth in the minors, ready to contribute as needed. Our bullpen may or may not need much tweaking.
CP: Jenks
SU: Dotel, Thornton
MR: Pena, Carrasco
LOOGY: Williams?
LR: Torres? Egbert? Nunez?
Buerhle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, _____.
I smell October.
08 July 2009
Pena for Allen
Time to evaluate the most recent trade.
At first, I was rather upset to see this deal happen. Brandon Allen has been doing well for the White Sox in the minors, and I saw him as being a contributor as soon as next year. I honestly liked the thought of Konerko staying at 1B for the most part, meaning that Fields and Allen would share time at DH. The Allen move might mean that Thome or Dye will be brought back to DH next year, or it could be a sign that Quentin or Flowers will be in a DH/1B role for the Sox soon. Anyway, with Viciedo failing at 3B and Flowers lacking at C, we still have some slugging 1B/DH depth.
Tony Pena is a good pitcher, but in my eyes Brandon Allen was worth more. Of course, Pena is a proven major league talent, cheap and under control for the next several years, and the Sox might see something in him that Cooper can fix. It is quite possible that Pena provides more value for Chicago than Allen does for Arizona.
I'm now viewing this the way I view most of Kenny Williams's trades: it looks like it could be a good deal, so I'll just have to wait and see how he knew better than I.
Arizona likes to trade for White Sox 1B prospects. Last year they acquired Chris Carter in the Carlos Quentin trade. Carter is now in the Oakland system due to the Dan Haren trade.
I'm not sure what Pena's purpose is at this point. I see two possibilities. 1) He is the heir apparent to Octavio Dotel, whether he leaves this offseason or at the trade deadline. Or 2) Scott Linebrink is reduced to lower-leverage situations, Dotel is promoted to the 8th inning with Thornton, and Pena fits in alongside/over Linebrink and Carrasco.
I have to assume that Gobble will be the corresponding roster move. With Poreda performing well, we don't really need the third lefty in the 'pen. A possible use for Gobble: the Cubs might be looking for a lefty reliever so that Sean Marshall can start, now that Ryan Dempster is injured. Not sure what we'd get in a swap, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gobble go the way of Cotts, to the North side.
Speaking of lefties, I'm wondering whether Randy Williams will get his chance. He impressed during spring training, but I haven't heard anything about him since. I checked at one point, and he was on Charlotte's roster, meaning we kept him after spring training. I'll look into it later, but I wonder how he's playing.
That's all for now.
At first, I was rather upset to see this deal happen. Brandon Allen has been doing well for the White Sox in the minors, and I saw him as being a contributor as soon as next year. I honestly liked the thought of Konerko staying at 1B for the most part, meaning that Fields and Allen would share time at DH. The Allen move might mean that Thome or Dye will be brought back to DH next year, or it could be a sign that Quentin or Flowers will be in a DH/1B role for the Sox soon. Anyway, with Viciedo failing at 3B and Flowers lacking at C, we still have some slugging 1B/DH depth.
Tony Pena is a good pitcher, but in my eyes Brandon Allen was worth more. Of course, Pena is a proven major league talent, cheap and under control for the next several years, and the Sox might see something in him that Cooper can fix. It is quite possible that Pena provides more value for Chicago than Allen does for Arizona.
I'm now viewing this the way I view most of Kenny Williams's trades: it looks like it could be a good deal, so I'll just have to wait and see how he knew better than I.
Arizona likes to trade for White Sox 1B prospects. Last year they acquired Chris Carter in the Carlos Quentin trade. Carter is now in the Oakland system due to the Dan Haren trade.
I'm not sure what Pena's purpose is at this point. I see two possibilities. 1) He is the heir apparent to Octavio Dotel, whether he leaves this offseason or at the trade deadline. Or 2) Scott Linebrink is reduced to lower-leverage situations, Dotel is promoted to the 8th inning with Thornton, and Pena fits in alongside/over Linebrink and Carrasco.
I have to assume that Gobble will be the corresponding roster move. With Poreda performing well, we don't really need the third lefty in the 'pen. A possible use for Gobble: the Cubs might be looking for a lefty reliever so that Sean Marshall can start, now that Ryan Dempster is injured. Not sure what we'd get in a swap, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gobble go the way of Cotts, to the North side.
Speaking of lefties, I'm wondering whether Randy Williams will get his chance. He impressed during spring training, but I haven't heard anything about him since. I checked at one point, and he was on Charlotte's roster, meaning we kept him after spring training. I'll look into it later, but I wonder how he's playing.
That's all for now.
07 July 2009
My MLB All-Star Roster
While I'm at it, let's set up an all-MLB All-Star team.
Starters
SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA
2B Chase Utley, PHI
1B Albert Pujols, STL
LF Raul Ibanez, PHI
C Joe Mauer, MIN
3B Brandon Inge, DET
RF Justin Upton, ARI
CF Adam Jones, BAL
P Zack Greinke, KC
Bench
C/1B Victor Martinez, CLE
C Brian McCann, ATL
1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B Adam Kennedy, OAK
2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
SS Jason Bartlett, TB
3B Evan Longoria, TB
IF/OF Ben Zobrist, TB
OF Ryan Braun, MIL
OF Carl Crawford, TB
OF Matt Kemp, LAD
Bullpen
SP Tim Lincecum, SF
SP Roy Halladay, TOR
SP Dan Haren, ARI
SP Justin Verlander, DET
SP Josh Johnson, FLA
SP Javier Vazquez, ATL
SP Felix Hernandez, SEA
RP Jonathan Broxton, LAD
RP Frank Francisco, TEX
RP Joe Nathan, MIN
RP Scott Downs, TOR
RP Heath Bell, SD
Starters
SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA
2B Chase Utley, PHI
1B Albert Pujols, STL
LF Raul Ibanez, PHI
C Joe Mauer, MIN
3B Brandon Inge, DET
RF Justin Upton, ARI
CF Adam Jones, BAL
P Zack Greinke, KC
Bench
C/1B Victor Martinez, CLE
C Brian McCann, ATL
1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B Adam Kennedy, OAK
2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
SS Jason Bartlett, TB
3B Evan Longoria, TB
IF/OF Ben Zobrist, TB
OF Ryan Braun, MIL
OF Carl Crawford, TB
OF Matt Kemp, LAD
Bullpen
SP Tim Lincecum, SF
SP Roy Halladay, TOR
SP Dan Haren, ARI
SP Justin Verlander, DET
SP Josh Johnson, FLA
SP Javier Vazquez, ATL
SP Felix Hernandez, SEA
RP Jonathan Broxton, LAD
RP Frank Francisco, TEX
RP Joe Nathan, MIN
RP Scott Downs, TOR
RP Heath Bell, SD
My NL All-Star Roster
Starters
SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA
2B Chase Utley, PHI
1B Albert Pujols, STL
LF Raul Ibanez, PHI
RF Justin Upton, ARI
3B David Wright, NYM
CF Matt Kemp, LAD
C Brian McCann, ATL
P Tim Lincecum, SF
Bench
C Yadier Molina, STL
C John Baker, FLA
1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
1B Prince Fielder, MIL
2B Freddy Sanchez, PIT
2B Brandon Phillips, CIN
SS Miguel Tejada, HOU
3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
OF Ryan Braun, MIL
OF Andre Ethier, LAD
OF Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF Mike Cameron, MIL
Bullpen
SP Dan Haren, ARI
SP Josh Johnson, FLA
SP Javier Vazquez, ATL
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
SP Joel Pineiro, STL
SP Chad Billingsley, LAD
SP Ted Lilly, CHC
RP Jonathan Broxton, LAD
RP Heath Bell, SD
RP Rafael Soriano, ATL
RP Mike Gonzalez, ATL
RP Ryan Franklin, STL
SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA
2B Chase Utley, PHI
1B Albert Pujols, STL
LF Raul Ibanez, PHI
RF Justin Upton, ARI
3B David Wright, NYM
CF Matt Kemp, LAD
C Brian McCann, ATL
P Tim Lincecum, SF
Bench
C Yadier Molina, STL
C John Baker, FLA
1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
1B Prince Fielder, MIL
2B Freddy Sanchez, PIT
2B Brandon Phillips, CIN
SS Miguel Tejada, HOU
3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
OF Ryan Braun, MIL
OF Andre Ethier, LAD
OF Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF Mike Cameron, MIL
Bullpen
SP Dan Haren, ARI
SP Josh Johnson, FLA
SP Javier Vazquez, ATL
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
SP Joel Pineiro, STL
SP Chad Billingsley, LAD
SP Ted Lilly, CHC
RP Jonathan Broxton, LAD
RP Heath Bell, SD
RP Rafael Soriano, ATL
RP Mike Gonzalez, ATL
RP Ryan Franklin, STL
My AL All-Star Roster
Starters
LF Carl Crawford, TB
2B Adam Kennedy, OAK
C Joe Mauer, MIN
1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS
RF Jason Bay, BOS
3B Brandon Inge, DET
CF Adam Jones, BAL
SS Jason Bartlett, TB
P Zack Greinke, KC
Bench
DH/OF Adam Lind, TOR
C/1B Victor Martinez, CLE
C Mike Napoli, LAA
1B Justin Morneau, MIN
2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
SS Marco Scutaro, TOR
3B Evan Longoria, TB
3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY
IF/OF Ben Zobrist, TB
OF Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
OF Torii Hunter, LAA
OF Matt Holliday, OAK
Bullpen
SP Roy Halladay, TOR
SP Justin Verlander, DET
SP Felix Hernandez, SEA
SP Cliff Lee, CLE
SP A. J. Burnett, NYY
SP Mark Buerhle, CHW
SP Josh Beckett, BOS
RP Frank Francisco, TEX
RP Joe Nathan, MIN
RP Mariano Rivera, NYY
RP Scott Downs, TOR
RP Joakim Soria, KC
National League later..
LF Carl Crawford, TB
2B Adam Kennedy, OAK
C Joe Mauer, MIN
1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS
RF Jason Bay, BOS
3B Brandon Inge, DET
CF Adam Jones, BAL
SS Jason Bartlett, TB
P Zack Greinke, KC
Bench
DH/OF Adam Lind, TOR
C/1B Victor Martinez, CLE
C Mike Napoli, LAA
1B Justin Morneau, MIN
2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
SS Marco Scutaro, TOR
3B Evan Longoria, TB
3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY
IF/OF Ben Zobrist, TB
OF Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
OF Torii Hunter, LAA
OF Matt Holliday, OAK
Bullpen
SP Roy Halladay, TOR
SP Justin Verlander, DET
SP Felix Hernandez, SEA
SP Cliff Lee, CLE
SP A. J. Burnett, NYY
SP Mark Buerhle, CHW
SP Josh Beckett, BOS
RP Frank Francisco, TEX
RP Joe Nathan, MIN
RP Mariano Rivera, NYY
RP Scott Downs, TOR
RP Joakim Soria, KC
National League later..
03 July 2009
Is this a playoff team?
No one's exactly sure what's going to happen when Quentin gets back, but one would assume Podsednik becomes more or less the everyday center fielder. One should also expect that all three outfielders will need their off days. Podsednik has been healthy so far, but with his history, I'm thinking Ozzie will still sit him sometimes once Quentin is back. So...
CF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
2B Getz
That might be our most regular lineup, depending of course on how strong Quentin is. If Quentin is 2008 MVP TCQ, then he'll find his way up the order.
An all-right-handed lineup we might see from time to time:
2B Nix
SS Ramirez
RF Dye
DH Konerko
LF Quentin
3B Beckham
C Castro
1B Fields
CF Anderson
And if we have to rest both Quentin and Dye:
LF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
1B Konerko
DH Thome
3B Beckham
C Pierzynski
RF Nix
2B Getz
CF Anderson
The exact order is hard to predict, so I set up a Lefty/Righty alternation.
Those lineups don't scare me as much as some would*, but is this a playoff lineup?
*4/18
2B Lillibridge
3B Fields
LF Quentin
RF Dye
DH Konerko
1B Betemit
SS Ramirez
CF Anderson
C Miller
4/25
2B Lillibridge
3B Fields
LF Quentin
DH Dye
1B Konerko
C Miller
RF Anderson
SS Ramirez
CF Owens
or any lineup with Lillibridge, Betemit playing 3rd, and Miller
My main worry has been, who will bat leadoff if Podsednik is out for a couple weeks, since this offense seems to work only if the leadoff hitter hits. Getz is capable of stepping in decently, and now Nix looked comfortable in that role for a day. That might not say much, but it does mean we have some options.
If Quentin struggles when he comes up, does he share time with Brian Anderson? Podsednik-Anderson-Dye is a much stronger defensive outfield than Quentin-Podsednik-Dye.
Getz, Beckham, and Nix have all been hitting pretty well lately, and Anderson and Fields have also been pretty good. Will this mish-mash be strong enough down the stretch? I'm thinking it just might.
CF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
LF Quentin
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
2B Getz
That might be our most regular lineup, depending of course on how strong Quentin is. If Quentin is 2008 MVP TCQ, then he'll find his way up the order.
An all-right-handed lineup we might see from time to time:
2B Nix
SS Ramirez
RF Dye
DH Konerko
LF Quentin
3B Beckham
C Castro
1B Fields
CF Anderson
And if we have to rest both Quentin and Dye:
LF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
1B Konerko
DH Thome
3B Beckham
C Pierzynski
RF Nix
2B Getz
CF Anderson
The exact order is hard to predict, so I set up a Lefty/Righty alternation.
Those lineups don't scare me as much as some would*, but is this a playoff lineup?
*4/18
2B Lillibridge
3B Fields
LF Quentin
RF Dye
DH Konerko
1B Betemit
SS Ramirez
CF Anderson
C Miller
4/25
2B Lillibridge
3B Fields
LF Quentin
DH Dye
1B Konerko
C Miller
RF Anderson
SS Ramirez
CF Owens
or any lineup with Lillibridge, Betemit playing 3rd, and Miller
My main worry has been, who will bat leadoff if Podsednik is out for a couple weeks, since this offense seems to work only if the leadoff hitter hits. Getz is capable of stepping in decently, and now Nix looked comfortable in that role for a day. That might not say much, but it does mean we have some options.
If Quentin struggles when he comes up, does he share time with Brian Anderson? Podsednik-Anderson-Dye is a much stronger defensive outfield than Quentin-Podsednik-Dye.
Getz, Beckham, and Nix have all been hitting pretty well lately, and Anderson and Fields have also been pretty good. Will this mish-mash be strong enough down the stretch? I'm thinking it just might.
29 June 2009
2010 White Sox and other tidbits
Some opening tidbits.
-I've started about 20 entries and never finished them since my last. I need to just go with the flow and forget about polish for now. I'll just publish what's on my mind and then put together special posts when I get around to it.
-The 2009 Sox turned around in my head about 2 weeks ago. At that point, I realized that for the first time I considered the Sox to have a very serious shot at this division. I mean, I considered them to be in the race before that, but I also thought 2009 needed to be a rebuilding year. Especially during the offseason. The rebirth of Scott Podsednik has been an amazing boost, and I definitely did not expect Beckham to be capable of this yet. He's starting to really hit, and he might just enter the ROY race. Inconceivable!
--------------------
The 2010 White Sox. I feel like I've gone over the possibilities a million times in my head, so here goes for right now.
The current stimulus is a post on MLBTradeRumors that the Blue Jays would like to trade Vernon Wells and/or Alex Rios to save money for re-signing Halladay. And I realized how much I would love to see Rios in a White Sox uniform. I'm sure we won't acquire him (at least not soon), but it's a fun thought. Imagine this lineup:
CF Podsednik
RF Rios
LF Quentin
1B Konerko
SS Ramirez
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
DH Fields/Allen
2B Getz
Not too shabby for another should-be-rebuilding year. With our pitching, such a team would compete. If Pods and Quentin are healthy. And if Ramirez is good. But even so, there are so many variations.
The Thome Question.
Everyone has assumed that Thome wouldn't be coming back to the White Sox in 2010. The problem with that is that he is still a very productive hitter (.245/.399/.500, .392 wOBA). Fangraphs has him at +1.2 wins so far this year. As an aging DH that needs days off and will probably need more over time, and considering his slow starts the last few years have caused scares, I can easily see Thome being an overlooked free agent this offseason. Which could mean a 1-year, $4 million contract or so. For that price, he'd be a nice pickup. I could see the Rays considering the opportunity, and maybe the Blue Jays or the Orioles (if they're ready to go for it). Most everyone else will have only limited interest unless things shift.
However, the biggest reason not to bring back Thome has nothing to do with his production. The White Sox have Brandon Allen coming up, with several other hitters behind him (Flowers, Viciedo), not to mention the fact that they might want to give Fields some playing time at 1B/DH and Konerko will still be under contract. In addition to all of this, if Quentin continues to get hurt, he may become a permanent DH. So having that DH spot open can be quite valuable to a young, developing White Sox squad.
Dye.
Similar picture. Dye is slowly becoming a DH himself, and the White Sox desperately need to find a good, young outfield. I'm not sure how long it will be until Jordan Danks and John Shelby reach the majors, but holding on to Dye will make things tricky. If we hold on to both Quentin and Podsednik, that's a lot of injury risk in the outfield. That could mean a season of watching Wise, Anderson, and Norris Hopper manning the grass. Ugh.
Konerko.
Paulie seems to be doing a great job this year, and his defense at 1B is really terrific. Alexei Ramirez has made sure to give us ample time to appreciate the captain's glove. With the questionable defense of Allen, Fields, Viciedo, maybe Flowers, etc., plus Quentin's DH potential, I think it makes sense to keep Paulie on the field at first. He has trade protection, but he could also be a valuable trade piece. Maybe the Rangers want him next year if Davis continues to disappoint. The Giants probably will still be looking for a bat as well.
Contreras.
Especially if he has a stellar second half, will he have a place on next year's team? I figure they want to move Poreda into the rotation, and Richard's spot is probably secure. What will the market for Jose look like? I imagine we'd at least offer him a low-salary bullpen role, but it's tough to say where he ends up.
The Missile.
Can he solidify his SS defense? Can he hit with consistency? He might be Ozzie's SS, but is he Kenny's? Considering that Beckham probably belongs in the middle infield and that Getz is not embarassing himself, and I can see Alexei being traded for something, maybe an outfielder or bullpen depth (or a catching prospect that can actually catch..). He's probably too good of a hitter to serve as a utility player, although he'd be very valuable in that role. Sort of a Mark DeRosa, adequate D all over and a pretty good bat to boot. I can see his trade value being high, but it's hard to tell. If Jose's gone, the Missile might follow.
Pierzynski.
I've mentioned Flowers several times, although I'm not sure if he'll be ready to catch at the big league level any time soon. Then there's Cole Armstrong, of whom I haven't heard much since spring training. Pierzynski is good and a lot of cities hate him, but he could be traded in the offseason. Depends on Flowers's development and whether Kenny can stomach a rebuilding season. And the market. I would love to see A. J. stick around, but I imagine he won't be here all that much longer.
Anderson.
He's somewhere between fourth outfielder and starter or platoon CF on a weaker team. I'm not sure how much trade value he has, and certainly he can serve the White Sox well, but I think he'd be best served by a fresh start somewhere else.
Podsednik.
I say keep him around and see what he can do. Try him in LF, in CF, and let him bat leadoff while he can. He probably won't be a part of the next great Sox team, but if he does his magic they'll be in the race even with a younger, weaker lineup.
Dotel.
Do you bother to re-sign him. Kenny very likely will, because he won't want to rebuild. But perhaps it's worth letting him go and keeping an eye out for bullpen upgrades before 2011...
Jenks.
Do whatever seems best. If his trade value is high enough, use him that way, or keep him around as the franchise closer. Either way works.
LF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
RF Quentin
1B Konerko
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
2B Getz/Nix
CF Anderson/Wise
DH Fields/Allen
LF Podsednik
2B Getz/Nix
DH Quentin
1B Konerko
SS Ramirez
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
RF Anderson/Wise
CF Danks
Those are a few thoughts. We'll see what happens. More later.
-I've started about 20 entries and never finished them since my last. I need to just go with the flow and forget about polish for now. I'll just publish what's on my mind and then put together special posts when I get around to it.
-The 2009 Sox turned around in my head about 2 weeks ago. At that point, I realized that for the first time I considered the Sox to have a very serious shot at this division. I mean, I considered them to be in the race before that, but I also thought 2009 needed to be a rebuilding year. Especially during the offseason. The rebirth of Scott Podsednik has been an amazing boost, and I definitely did not expect Beckham to be capable of this yet. He's starting to really hit, and he might just enter the ROY race. Inconceivable!
--------------------
The 2010 White Sox. I feel like I've gone over the possibilities a million times in my head, so here goes for right now.
The current stimulus is a post on MLBTradeRumors that the Blue Jays would like to trade Vernon Wells and/or Alex Rios to save money for re-signing Halladay. And I realized how much I would love to see Rios in a White Sox uniform. I'm sure we won't acquire him (at least not soon), but it's a fun thought. Imagine this lineup:
CF Podsednik
RF Rios
LF Quentin
1B Konerko
SS Ramirez
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
DH Fields/Allen
2B Getz
Not too shabby for another should-be-rebuilding year. With our pitching, such a team would compete. If Pods and Quentin are healthy. And if Ramirez is good. But even so, there are so many variations.
The Thome Question.
Everyone has assumed that Thome wouldn't be coming back to the White Sox in 2010. The problem with that is that he is still a very productive hitter (.245/.399/.500, .392 wOBA). Fangraphs has him at +1.2 wins so far this year. As an aging DH that needs days off and will probably need more over time, and considering his slow starts the last few years have caused scares, I can easily see Thome being an overlooked free agent this offseason. Which could mean a 1-year, $4 million contract or so. For that price, he'd be a nice pickup. I could see the Rays considering the opportunity, and maybe the Blue Jays or the Orioles (if they're ready to go for it). Most everyone else will have only limited interest unless things shift.
However, the biggest reason not to bring back Thome has nothing to do with his production. The White Sox have Brandon Allen coming up, with several other hitters behind him (Flowers, Viciedo), not to mention the fact that they might want to give Fields some playing time at 1B/DH and Konerko will still be under contract. In addition to all of this, if Quentin continues to get hurt, he may become a permanent DH. So having that DH spot open can be quite valuable to a young, developing White Sox squad.
Dye.
Similar picture. Dye is slowly becoming a DH himself, and the White Sox desperately need to find a good, young outfield. I'm not sure how long it will be until Jordan Danks and John Shelby reach the majors, but holding on to Dye will make things tricky. If we hold on to both Quentin and Podsednik, that's a lot of injury risk in the outfield. That could mean a season of watching Wise, Anderson, and Norris Hopper manning the grass. Ugh.
Konerko.
Paulie seems to be doing a great job this year, and his defense at 1B is really terrific. Alexei Ramirez has made sure to give us ample time to appreciate the captain's glove. With the questionable defense of Allen, Fields, Viciedo, maybe Flowers, etc., plus Quentin's DH potential, I think it makes sense to keep Paulie on the field at first. He has trade protection, but he could also be a valuable trade piece. Maybe the Rangers want him next year if Davis continues to disappoint. The Giants probably will still be looking for a bat as well.
Contreras.
Especially if he has a stellar second half, will he have a place on next year's team? I figure they want to move Poreda into the rotation, and Richard's spot is probably secure. What will the market for Jose look like? I imagine we'd at least offer him a low-salary bullpen role, but it's tough to say where he ends up.
The Missile.
Can he solidify his SS defense? Can he hit with consistency? He might be Ozzie's SS, but is he Kenny's? Considering that Beckham probably belongs in the middle infield and that Getz is not embarassing himself, and I can see Alexei being traded for something, maybe an outfielder or bullpen depth (or a catching prospect that can actually catch..). He's probably too good of a hitter to serve as a utility player, although he'd be very valuable in that role. Sort of a Mark DeRosa, adequate D all over and a pretty good bat to boot. I can see his trade value being high, but it's hard to tell. If Jose's gone, the Missile might follow.
Pierzynski.
I've mentioned Flowers several times, although I'm not sure if he'll be ready to catch at the big league level any time soon. Then there's Cole Armstrong, of whom I haven't heard much since spring training. Pierzynski is good and a lot of cities hate him, but he could be traded in the offseason. Depends on Flowers's development and whether Kenny can stomach a rebuilding season. And the market. I would love to see A. J. stick around, but I imagine he won't be here all that much longer.
Anderson.
He's somewhere between fourth outfielder and starter or platoon CF on a weaker team. I'm not sure how much trade value he has, and certainly he can serve the White Sox well, but I think he'd be best served by a fresh start somewhere else.
Podsednik.
I say keep him around and see what he can do. Try him in LF, in CF, and let him bat leadoff while he can. He probably won't be a part of the next great Sox team, but if he does his magic they'll be in the race even with a younger, weaker lineup.
Dotel.
Do you bother to re-sign him. Kenny very likely will, because he won't want to rebuild. But perhaps it's worth letting him go and keeping an eye out for bullpen upgrades before 2011...
Jenks.
Do whatever seems best. If his trade value is high enough, use him that way, or keep him around as the franchise closer. Either way works.
LF Podsednik
SS Ramirez
RF Quentin
1B Konerko
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
2B Getz/Nix
CF Anderson/Wise
DH Fields/Allen
LF Podsednik
2B Getz/Nix
DH Quentin
1B Konerko
SS Ramirez
C Pierzynski
3B Beckham
RF Anderson/Wise
CF Danks
Those are a few thoughts. We'll see what happens. More later.
30 April 2009
My Happy Rankings
This is completely non-analytical. These are the teams I like, no matter the reason.
1. Chicago White Sox
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Kansas City Royals
7. Boston Red Sox
8. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. Baltimore Orioles
11. Minnesota Twins
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Seattle Mariners
16. San Diego Padres
17. New York Mets
18. Oakland Athletics
19. Philadelphia Phillies
20. Pittsburgh Pirates
21. Texas Rangers
22. Detroit Tigers
23. Chicago Cubs
24. New York Yankees
25. San Francisco Giants
26. Cleveland Indians
27. Milwaukee Brewers
28. Houston Astros
29. Colorado Rockies
30. Washington Nationals
Doing this has pointed out to me that I really have pretty positive feelings about almost every team. I don't dislike any teams; the bottom teams I feel rather neutral about. I also can tell how this has changed over time, so maybe I'll redo this list every once in a while. My feelings are based on so many things, including but not limited to: direction the franchise is taking, the players on the teams, quality of pitching, and regard for defense. Success has obviously impacted the ratings as well, when the Washington Nationals finish last. However, I think it's more the way they succeed that gets me happy.. My top 6 are generally underrated and/or underdogs. I've been very impressed with the Red Sox organization lately (Smoltz, Baldelli, Saito..). The Angels are LA's second team, like the ChiSox here. Speaking of which, the Mets fell to 17 despite that. Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay have exciting young players.
Happiness playoffs (if the season ended now)
AL Central White Sox over AL West Angels
AL East Blue Jays over AL Wild Card Royals
NL Central Cardinals over NL Wild Card Marlins
NL East Braves over NL West Dodgers
AL Central White Sox over AL East Blue Jays
NL Central Cardinals over NL East Braves
AL White Sox over NL Cardinals
If that happens, I promise I'll smile!
1. Chicago White Sox
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Kansas City Royals
7. Boston Red Sox
8. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. Baltimore Orioles
11. Minnesota Twins
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Seattle Mariners
16. San Diego Padres
17. New York Mets
18. Oakland Athletics
19. Philadelphia Phillies
20. Pittsburgh Pirates
21. Texas Rangers
22. Detroit Tigers
23. Chicago Cubs
24. New York Yankees
25. San Francisco Giants
26. Cleveland Indians
27. Milwaukee Brewers
28. Houston Astros
29. Colorado Rockies
30. Washington Nationals
Doing this has pointed out to me that I really have pretty positive feelings about almost every team. I don't dislike any teams; the bottom teams I feel rather neutral about. I also can tell how this has changed over time, so maybe I'll redo this list every once in a while. My feelings are based on so many things, including but not limited to: direction the franchise is taking, the players on the teams, quality of pitching, and regard for defense. Success has obviously impacted the ratings as well, when the Washington Nationals finish last. However, I think it's more the way they succeed that gets me happy.. My top 6 are generally underrated and/or underdogs. I've been very impressed with the Red Sox organization lately (Smoltz, Baldelli, Saito..). The Angels are LA's second team, like the ChiSox here. Speaking of which, the Mets fell to 17 despite that. Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay have exciting young players.
Happiness playoffs (if the season ended now)
AL Central White Sox over AL West Angels
AL East Blue Jays over AL Wild Card Royals
NL Central Cardinals over NL Wild Card Marlins
NL East Braves over NL West Dodgers
AL Central White Sox over AL East Blue Jays
NL Central Cardinals over NL East Braves
AL White Sox over NL Cardinals
If that happens, I promise I'll smile!
28 April 2009
12 April 2009
A bit about my projections
My projections are not entirely original work, and I do not claim them to be. I put a good deal of time into them, but it was really just fine-tuning other people's work to my own purposes. I came up with several good ideas on which I lacked the time to follow through, but I hope to add them in the future.
The basic data of my projections are an average of the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS projections, all of which are available on Fangraphs. I converted the raw projections into a rate per AB. I understand that PA would be a better denominator, but not all of my data included PA.
For playing time projections, I did a bit more work. I used the Bill James and Marcel projections as the basic guide (part A), and CHONE, Oliver, and ZiPS, to my eye, too often give an inaccurate idea of playing time, especially for younger players. They project more of what the player could do than what the player will get the opportunity to do. I used MLBDepthcharts.com, which I continued to check throughout the offseason, as the other side of my playing time projections (part B). I used the players' projected roles and converted them into an approximate AB total. I also considered whether a player was injured or is considered prone to injury, thus lowering my projected AB. I then considered their likely place in the lineup, again using MLBDepthcharts.com, and multiplied that projected AB total by a lineup position multiplier, which I obtained by weighting the last five seasons of aggregate MLB data by batting order position (5-4-3-2-1), via baseball-reference.com. I then averaged part A and part B, figuring that preseason expectations are not all going to be accurate, but neither will the projections based a player's history. By combining the player's history with his role at the start of the season, I hoped to obtain a better idea of what that player would contribute during the season. My team offense was based on wOBA.
For pitchers, I did much the same, using IP instead of AB. I used a very rough idea of how many IP to expect from each pitcher, and considered the depth and strength of the bullpen in giving an admittedly arbitrary part B to each reliever. My team pitching was based on FIP.
For fielding, I went for simplicity, using the player's AB total to indicate their playing time. I used the CHONE defensive projections (baseballprojection.com) as one side of my defensive projections. I then gathered each player's UZR/150 and games played at their positions for the last three years, courtesy of Fangraphs. I weighted them according to games played. I then, running out of time, used the CHONE projection and my UZR projection at each position, combined with the expected role of the player, to venture an estimate as to the player's runs cost/saved over the course of the season. For instance, a DH would be mostly 0, but if they were likely to spend some time in the field, then I would give them maybe 10% of their UZR/150 for the position, based on how much time they would likely be a defender. It was very approximate, and I considered players without MLB experience to be league average. If they were expected to play multiple roles (as they usually are), I considered them average at C, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF; slightly above average at 1B; and slightly below average at SS and CF.
I then combined the offensive, pitching, and defensive contributions to come up with estimated Runs scored and Runs allowed totals. I used these to determine a Pythagorean win expectation. I then went through each team's schedule and used the log-5 formula to determine the teams' win expectancies against each other, assuming the Pythagorean expectation to be their natural Winning percentage. I did not assign a winner to each game or series; I simply added the win expectancies accrued from each game to arrive at a projected win total.
And there you have it. I simplified many things, and I have so many ideas for improving the system, but I did this all on Excel with limited time, and could not pursue (yet) all of my ideas. Some of those:
-Creating a more formulaic basis for each player's defensive ratings at each position, taking their defense at every position into account, based on playing time. For instance, a player with 6 games experience at 2B but 300 games at SS would have a 2B rating almost entirely derived from their 2B rating and a positional adjustment. Meanwhile, a player with 100 games each at 2B, 3B, and SS would have a rating based almost half on their 2B playing time, but half based on their other infield ratings. I am tentatively using 250 games (over 3 years) as the cutoff point; a player with 250 games at 2B would use only 2B data, a player with 200 games at 2B would use 2B data for 80% of their projection and then date from other positions, and a player with less than 250 games played total would have the remainder averaged in as league average (0).
-Estimating each players RBI and R based on: their position in the batting order, their wOBA (RBI), their SLG (RBI), their OBP (R), the preceding batters' OBP (RBI), the following batters' SLG (R), and the following batters' wOBA (R). This would require fairly accurately projecting each team's wOBA/OBP/SLG projection for each batting order slot, taking into account the different hitters likely to spend time there. It would also require extensive math work in figuring out what correlations (if any) there are between these rates and the actual scoring of runs. This data may or may not matter for my team projections (I would need to be convinced it was more accurate than using wOBA). However, it would help for individual projections, although mostly in a way that common sense would also do.
-Studying the factors that influence a pitcher's decisions. Do certain types of pitcher get more no-decisions per start than others? How do the relative strengths of the offense and bullpen/defense affect which starts become no-decisions (left with lead, left with deficit)? I don't think I'll have the time to study this in-depth, honestly, for a few years, but it's definitely something I would like to look into.
-Park factors. I'm not sure which projections take park factors into account, and whether they project for a neutral park or for a home park, or even which team they project for free agents (i.e. when did they project?). Thus, we can assume the Rockies and Rangers might score less runs, and maybe the A's and Padres won't score as many.
-Taking replacement level into consideration. A team is not likely to give much time to players who perform significantly below replacement level. It should be assumed that replacement level replacements will be found.
-Age. I considered slightly penalizing teams with an older age by projecting, in the aggregate, that they would receive fewer AB from their starters, and more AB from their bench players and replacement/AAA players than projected. This would account for the likelihood that someone will go down, without unduly penalizing a given player who shows no signs of being frail. Age will catch up to someone, say the odds.
-Finally... considering the effects of trades. It is beyond the scope of what I would be doing, but a serious projectionist could consider the expected records of teams in a continuous manner as the season progresses. He could then project at which point a team would decide that they were out of the running, or that they needed another bat/arm to contend. Then a look at who might be available and what money might be available could lead to a projection as to the level of production a team could reasonably expect to gain/lose from trading. Obviously, projecting specific trades would be difficult, but projecting that the team has roughly a 75% chance of acquiring one of 4-5 available pitchers would help. You could add 75% of the average run-saving production of those pitchers, demoting a lesser performer, in projecting the rest of the season. This would influence the final standings.
I probably skipped some nice ideas that I might detail later. Hopefully someone takes the time to solve some of these issues, and hopefully I do so as well.
The basic data of my projections are an average of the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS projections, all of which are available on Fangraphs. I converted the raw projections into a rate per AB. I understand that PA would be a better denominator, but not all of my data included PA.
For playing time projections, I did a bit more work. I used the Bill James and Marcel projections as the basic guide (part A), and CHONE, Oliver, and ZiPS, to my eye, too often give an inaccurate idea of playing time, especially for younger players. They project more of what the player could do than what the player will get the opportunity to do. I used MLBDepthcharts.com, which I continued to check throughout the offseason, as the other side of my playing time projections (part B). I used the players' projected roles and converted them into an approximate AB total. I also considered whether a player was injured or is considered prone to injury, thus lowering my projected AB. I then considered their likely place in the lineup, again using MLBDepthcharts.com, and multiplied that projected AB total by a lineup position multiplier, which I obtained by weighting the last five seasons of aggregate MLB data by batting order position (5-4-3-2-1), via baseball-reference.com. I then averaged part A and part B, figuring that preseason expectations are not all going to be accurate, but neither will the projections based a player's history. By combining the player's history with his role at the start of the season, I hoped to obtain a better idea of what that player would contribute during the season. My team offense was based on wOBA.
For pitchers, I did much the same, using IP instead of AB. I used a very rough idea of how many IP to expect from each pitcher, and considered the depth and strength of the bullpen in giving an admittedly arbitrary part B to each reliever. My team pitching was based on FIP.
For fielding, I went for simplicity, using the player's AB total to indicate their playing time. I used the CHONE defensive projections (baseballprojection.com) as one side of my defensive projections. I then gathered each player's UZR/150 and games played at their positions for the last three years, courtesy of Fangraphs. I weighted them according to games played. I then, running out of time, used the CHONE projection and my UZR projection at each position, combined with the expected role of the player, to venture an estimate as to the player's runs cost/saved over the course of the season. For instance, a DH would be mostly 0, but if they were likely to spend some time in the field, then I would give them maybe 10% of their UZR/150 for the position, based on how much time they would likely be a defender. It was very approximate, and I considered players without MLB experience to be league average. If they were expected to play multiple roles (as they usually are), I considered them average at C, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF; slightly above average at 1B; and slightly below average at SS and CF.
I then combined the offensive, pitching, and defensive contributions to come up with estimated Runs scored and Runs allowed totals. I used these to determine a Pythagorean win expectation. I then went through each team's schedule and used the log-5 formula to determine the teams' win expectancies against each other, assuming the Pythagorean expectation to be their natural Winning percentage. I did not assign a winner to each game or series; I simply added the win expectancies accrued from each game to arrive at a projected win total.
And there you have it. I simplified many things, and I have so many ideas for improving the system, but I did this all on Excel with limited time, and could not pursue (yet) all of my ideas. Some of those:
-Creating a more formulaic basis for each player's defensive ratings at each position, taking their defense at every position into account, based on playing time. For instance, a player with 6 games experience at 2B but 300 games at SS would have a 2B rating almost entirely derived from their 2B rating and a positional adjustment. Meanwhile, a player with 100 games each at 2B, 3B, and SS would have a rating based almost half on their 2B playing time, but half based on their other infield ratings. I am tentatively using 250 games (over 3 years) as the cutoff point; a player with 250 games at 2B would use only 2B data, a player with 200 games at 2B would use 2B data for 80% of their projection and then date from other positions, and a player with less than 250 games played total would have the remainder averaged in as league average (0).
-Estimating each players RBI and R based on: their position in the batting order, their wOBA (RBI), their SLG (RBI), their OBP (R), the preceding batters' OBP (RBI), the following batters' SLG (R), and the following batters' wOBA (R). This would require fairly accurately projecting each team's wOBA/OBP/SLG projection for each batting order slot, taking into account the different hitters likely to spend time there. It would also require extensive math work in figuring out what correlations (if any) there are between these rates and the actual scoring of runs. This data may or may not matter for my team projections (I would need to be convinced it was more accurate than using wOBA). However, it would help for individual projections, although mostly in a way that common sense would also do.
-Studying the factors that influence a pitcher's decisions. Do certain types of pitcher get more no-decisions per start than others? How do the relative strengths of the offense and bullpen/defense affect which starts become no-decisions (left with lead, left with deficit)? I don't think I'll have the time to study this in-depth, honestly, for a few years, but it's definitely something I would like to look into.
-Park factors. I'm not sure which projections take park factors into account, and whether they project for a neutral park or for a home park, or even which team they project for free agents (i.e. when did they project?). Thus, we can assume the Rockies and Rangers might score less runs, and maybe the A's and Padres won't score as many.
-Taking replacement level into consideration. A team is not likely to give much time to players who perform significantly below replacement level. It should be assumed that replacement level replacements will be found.
-Age. I considered slightly penalizing teams with an older age by projecting, in the aggregate, that they would receive fewer AB from their starters, and more AB from their bench players and replacement/AAA players than projected. This would account for the likelihood that someone will go down, without unduly penalizing a given player who shows no signs of being frail. Age will catch up to someone, say the odds.
-Finally... considering the effects of trades. It is beyond the scope of what I would be doing, but a serious projectionist could consider the expected records of teams in a continuous manner as the season progresses. He could then project at which point a team would decide that they were out of the running, or that they needed another bat/arm to contend. Then a look at who might be available and what money might be available could lead to a projection as to the level of production a team could reasonably expect to gain/lose from trading. Obviously, projecting specific trades would be difficult, but projecting that the team has roughly a 75% chance of acquiring one of 4-5 available pitchers would help. You could add 75% of the average run-saving production of those pitchers, demoting a lesser performer, in projecting the rest of the season. This would influence the final standings.
I probably skipped some nice ideas that I might detail later. Hopefully someone takes the time to solve some of these issues, and hopefully I do so as well.
06 April 2009
Power Rankings
As a corollary to my projections, I'll add the rankings of each team, 1-30. The projections took their schedules into account, so sometimes a better team may have a worse record in the projected standings.
1 Boston Red Sox
2 New York Yankees
3 Tampa Bay Rays
4 Atlanta Braves
5 New York Mets
6 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
7 Philadelphia Phillies
8 Chicago Cubs
9 Detroit Tigers
10 Cleveland Indians
11 Arizona Diamondbacks
12 St. Louis Cardinals
13 Minnesota Twins
14 Seattle Mariners
15 Milwaukee Brewers
16 Colorado Rockies
17 San Francisco Giants
18 Cincinnati Reds
19 Chicago White Sox
20 Los Angeles Dodgers
21 Toronto Blue Jays
22 Kansas City Royals
23 Oakland Athletics
24 Houston Astros
25 Baltimore Orioles
26 Florida Marlins
27 Texas Rangers
28 San Diego Padres
29 Washington Nationals
30 Pittsburgh Pirates
There may be a slight bias towards the American League because I include pitchers' hitting in the National League offensive projections. If/when I figure out an appropriate correction for the rankings, I'll adjust them. That also might mean Atlanta has a better chance against Boston in the World Series. Then again, I assumed no home field advantage in the World Series, so if the AL wins the All-Star Game again, the bias will probably correct for that.
1 Boston Red Sox
2 New York Yankees
3 Tampa Bay Rays
4 Atlanta Braves
5 New York Mets
6 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
7 Philadelphia Phillies
8 Chicago Cubs
9 Detroit Tigers
10 Cleveland Indians
11 Arizona Diamondbacks
12 St. Louis Cardinals
13 Minnesota Twins
14 Seattle Mariners
15 Milwaukee Brewers
16 Colorado Rockies
17 San Francisco Giants
18 Cincinnati Reds
19 Chicago White Sox
20 Los Angeles Dodgers
21 Toronto Blue Jays
22 Kansas City Royals
23 Oakland Athletics
24 Houston Astros
25 Baltimore Orioles
26 Florida Marlins
27 Texas Rangers
28 San Diego Padres
29 Washington Nationals
30 Pittsburgh Pirates
There may be a slight bias towards the American League because I include pitchers' hitting in the National League offensive projections. If/when I figure out an appropriate correction for the rankings, I'll adjust them. That also might mean Atlanta has a better chance against Boston in the World Series. Then again, I assumed no home field advantage in the World Series, so if the AL wins the All-Star Game again, the bias will probably correct for that.
2009 MLB Predictions
I've done quite a bit of work on projections this offseason, which I will detail to some extent later. In the meantime, here are my projections for the 2009 season, based purely on my math:
American League
West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 89-73
2. Seattle Mariners 80-82
3. Oakland Athletics 75-87
4. Texas Rangers 69-93
Central
1. Detroit Tigers 85-77
2. Cleveland Indians 83-79
3. Minnesota Twins 80-82
4. Chicago White Sox 77-85
5. Kansas City Royals 75-87
East
1. Boston Red Sox 99-63
2. New York Yankees 98-64
3. Tampa Bay Rays 91-71
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Baltimore Orioles 67-95
National League
West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
2. San Francisco Giants 81-81
3. Colorado Rockies 81-81
4. Los Angeles Dodgers 81-81
5. San Diego Padres 70-92
Central
1. Chicago Cubs 89-73
2. St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
3. Milwaukee Brewers 83-79
4. Cincinnati Reds 81-81
5. Houston Astros 74-88
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 68-94
East
1. Atlanta Braves 93-69
2. New York Mets 91-71
3. Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
4. Florida Marlins 71-91
5. Washington Nationals 67-95
ALDS
Boston over Detroit, 3-0
New York over Los Angeles of Anaheim, 3-1
NLDS
Atlanta over Arizona, 3-1
New York over Chicago, 3-2
ALCS
Boston over New York, 4-3
NLCS
Atlanta over New York, 4-2
World Series
Boston over Atlanta, 4-2
Analysis and opinion later.
American League
West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 89-73
2. Seattle Mariners 80-82
3. Oakland Athletics 75-87
4. Texas Rangers 69-93
Central
1. Detroit Tigers 85-77
2. Cleveland Indians 83-79
3. Minnesota Twins 80-82
4. Chicago White Sox 77-85
5. Kansas City Royals 75-87
East
1. Boston Red Sox 99-63
2. New York Yankees 98-64
3. Tampa Bay Rays 91-71
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Baltimore Orioles 67-95
National League
West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
2. San Francisco Giants 81-81
3. Colorado Rockies 81-81
4. Los Angeles Dodgers 81-81
5. San Diego Padres 70-92
Central
1. Chicago Cubs 89-73
2. St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
3. Milwaukee Brewers 83-79
4. Cincinnati Reds 81-81
5. Houston Astros 74-88
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 68-94
East
1. Atlanta Braves 93-69
2. New York Mets 91-71
3. Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
4. Florida Marlins 71-91
5. Washington Nationals 67-95
ALDS
Boston over Detroit, 3-0
New York over Los Angeles of Anaheim, 3-1
NLDS
Atlanta over Arizona, 3-1
New York over Chicago, 3-2
ALCS
Boston over New York, 4-3
NLCS
Atlanta over New York, 4-2
World Series
Boston over Atlanta, 4-2
Analysis and opinion later.
21 February 2009
Baseball Links Introduced
I've added a links section to my page, with the following awesome sites:
MLB Trade Rumors--I check this page several times a day. It gathers all the latest rumors and announcements on trades, free agent signings, roster moves, and the like. It also provides links to the many articles it cites and gives well-informed feedback, judging the seriousness of each rumor and the implications behind a move. E.g. The Crede signing and early talk of a midseason Halladay trade.
Baseball-reference.com--This is an amazing site giving career statistics for players past and present. You can also link into the minor league section, which will give you minor league stats since they became readily available. I'll often check here to see how much time a given player has spent at each position in their major and minor league years. E.g. Mark Teahen, 256 games at 3B, 229 at RF, 31 at LF, 23 at 1B, 6 at CF, and 1 at DH, in the Majors. In the minors, exclusively 3B, at least since the high-A Modesto A's. Some minor league data is incomplete, usually rookie and short-season leagues.
FanGraphs.com--Another stat site, Fangraphs gives you a lot of advanced sabermetric stats for free. You can see BB%, K%, LD%, FB%, GB%, HR/FB, wOBA, BABIP, WPA/LI, splits for pitch type, fielding value, career graphs, and their projection of an appropriate contract value. They also provide a convenient one-stop look at the Marcel, CHONE, Oliver, and Bill James projections. E.g. Shin-Soo Choo is projected by Marcel at a .373 wOBA, by CHONE at .354, by Oliver at .347, and by Bill James at .359. Average those out for .358.
MLB Depth Charts--A new discovery brought to my attention by MLB Trade Rumors, they've given a run-down of each team's likely roster set-up and depth chart, with a little commentary and a long list of who might make the team. E.g. They've already updated Joe Crede into the 3B slot, describing him thus: "hit .252 with 16 HR's and 49 RBI's in the first half of the season as he was named to his first all-star team but he only batted 39 times the rest of the way because of a back injury." They do seem to rely on AVG a lot in their descriptions, but just in a quick here's-what-the-guy-looked-like kind of way.
Inside The Book--run by Tom Tango and the crew who wrote The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, there is a lot of wonderfully statistic sabermetric discussion here. Look in the comments under the headings of their blog, and you will find numbers-based discussions of what's happening in the baseball world. E.g. They've had plenty of discussion on the 'true value' of the free agents on this year's market.
Hardball Times--another fun site of sabermetric analysis. I've read several articles here recently utilizing the PITCHf/x data and starting to draw analytical conclusions from the data. E.g. Hitters have trouble hitting the low-outside fastball at any speed, but are consistently better at nailing the middle-in fastball the slower it goes. Based on math now, not intuition.
I'll probably add to the sites in the future; these are just the ones I thought of now. I've been frequenting them, as I build my perceptions about the coming season and beyond.
Speaking of which, I've been waffling, and I'm not as sold on the Twins as I was earlier, though Crede bumps them back up. I'm starting to slot Chicago into #2 in the AL Central. And while I might bump the Yankees up to #2 in the East over the Rays, it's quite close. I love Boston's depth, and I think they're still the team to beat, not only in the AL East, but probably in the Majors.
MLB Trade Rumors--I check this page several times a day. It gathers all the latest rumors and announcements on trades, free agent signings, roster moves, and the like. It also provides links to the many articles it cites and gives well-informed feedback, judging the seriousness of each rumor and the implications behind a move. E.g. The Crede signing and early talk of a midseason Halladay trade.
Baseball-reference.com--This is an amazing site giving career statistics for players past and present. You can also link into the minor league section, which will give you minor league stats since they became readily available. I'll often check here to see how much time a given player has spent at each position in their major and minor league years. E.g. Mark Teahen, 256 games at 3B, 229 at RF, 31 at LF, 23 at 1B, 6 at CF, and 1 at DH, in the Majors. In the minors, exclusively 3B, at least since the high-A Modesto A's. Some minor league data is incomplete, usually rookie and short-season leagues.
FanGraphs.com--Another stat site, Fangraphs gives you a lot of advanced sabermetric stats for free. You can see BB%, K%, LD%, FB%, GB%, HR/FB, wOBA, BABIP, WPA/LI, splits for pitch type, fielding value, career graphs, and their projection of an appropriate contract value. They also provide a convenient one-stop look at the Marcel, CHONE, Oliver, and Bill James projections. E.g. Shin-Soo Choo is projected by Marcel at a .373 wOBA, by CHONE at .354, by Oliver at .347, and by Bill James at .359. Average those out for .358.
MLB Depth Charts--A new discovery brought to my attention by MLB Trade Rumors, they've given a run-down of each team's likely roster set-up and depth chart, with a little commentary and a long list of who might make the team. E.g. They've already updated Joe Crede into the 3B slot, describing him thus: "hit .252 with 16 HR's and 49 RBI's in the first half of the season as he was named to his first all-star team but he only batted 39 times the rest of the way because of a back injury." They do seem to rely on AVG a lot in their descriptions, but just in a quick here's-what-the-guy-looked-like kind of way.
Inside The Book--run by Tom Tango and the crew who wrote The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, there is a lot of wonderfully statistic sabermetric discussion here. Look in the comments under the headings of their blog, and you will find numbers-based discussions of what's happening in the baseball world. E.g. They've had plenty of discussion on the 'true value' of the free agents on this year's market.
Hardball Times--another fun site of sabermetric analysis. I've read several articles here recently utilizing the PITCHf/x data and starting to draw analytical conclusions from the data. E.g. Hitters have trouble hitting the low-outside fastball at any speed, but are consistently better at nailing the middle-in fastball the slower it goes. Based on math now, not intuition.
I'll probably add to the sites in the future; these are just the ones I thought of now. I've been frequenting them, as I build my perceptions about the coming season and beyond.
Speaking of which, I've been waffling, and I'm not as sold on the Twins as I was earlier, though Crede bumps them back up. I'm starting to slot Chicago into #2 in the AL Central. And while I might bump the Yankees up to #2 in the East over the Rays, it's quite close. I love Boston's depth, and I think they're still the team to beat, not only in the AL East, but probably in the Majors.
16 January 2009
So I've discovered that I wasn't ready for blogging yet. I need to set aside time for writing on a regular basis, and I now intend to do that. Here goes, round two.
I'm starting to put together my thoughts on the upcoming baseball season, but I feel like I'll arrive at different conclusions once I really analyze each team, one by one. Here's where I currently stand
AL West
1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-it's a close call, but their pitching and defense are great.
2 Oakland Athletics-I can easily see them winning the division, but they need strong pitching.
3 Texas Rangers-with the right moves, they could be in it, but the pitching, again, is weak
4 Seattle Mariners-hopefully they're not so far out, but they've got work to do
AL Central
1 Cleveland Indians-maybe I just like the Indians, but they seem primed for another good year
2 Minnesota Twins-if their young pitching keeps up, this is a solid team, despite its look
3 Chicago White Sox-they can really end high or low, with so much young talent in place
4 Detroit Tigers-they haven't addressed the bullpen, but they have a lot of talent
5 Kansas City Royals-they should be in a better position, but they're not there yet
AL East
1 Boston Red Sox-such a balanced, experienced group, with youth, and they've added upside
2 Tampa Bay Rays-a very balanced group, with a solid bullpen great rotation potential
3 New York Yankees-they should be great, but now they're the ones stuck in a tough div.
4 Toronto Blue Jays-they took a hit and won't compete in this division, but they're good
5 Baltimore Orioles-they have young talent improving, but they're still a year or two away
NL West
1 Los Angeles Dodgers-if they get Manny, especially, but their pitching is weaker
2 San Francisco Giants-tough call, but some solid pitching should keep them in it
3 Arizona Diamondbacks-they seem to be stepping backwards, but they've got good youth
4 Colorado Rockies-not sure if they've got enough left to compete
5 San Diego Padres-they're not trying to compete in '09
NL Central
1 Chicago Cubs-a solid overall team, especially if they pick up another pitcher
2 St. Louis Cardinals-I think they're underrated, but it depends on health again
3 Houston Astros-they finished last year strong and have a shot
4 Milwaukee Brewers-if they don't bring back Sheets, their pitching could be rough
5 Cincinnati Reds-they're not balanced enough to compete
6 Pittsburgh Pirates-their perpetual rebuilding continues
NL East
1 New York Mets-with that rotation, the new bullpen arms, offense, defense, I say team to beat
2 Philadelphia Phillies-still very good, and their rotation is strong, but the Mets look better
3 Atlanta Braves-with some good seasons, they could be back in it, but there's ground to cover
4 Florida Marlins-they've got some real pitching, so they could easily find themselves in it
5 Washington Nationals-not ready yet
Wild cards right now to Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, with St. Louis close behind
Now, the plan is to go through each team, position by position, to get a better assessment. I in no way expect this ranking to stay the same by spring training. As a lifelong American League fan, I still feel that my National League knowledge is weaker, and so I'm especially looking forward to some serious study time with each roster.
I'm starting to put together my thoughts on the upcoming baseball season, but I feel like I'll arrive at different conclusions once I really analyze each team, one by one. Here's where I currently stand
AL West
1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-it's a close call, but their pitching and defense are great.
2 Oakland Athletics-I can easily see them winning the division, but they need strong pitching.
3 Texas Rangers-with the right moves, they could be in it, but the pitching, again, is weak
4 Seattle Mariners-hopefully they're not so far out, but they've got work to do
AL Central
1 Cleveland Indians-maybe I just like the Indians, but they seem primed for another good year
2 Minnesota Twins-if their young pitching keeps up, this is a solid team, despite its look
3 Chicago White Sox-they can really end high or low, with so much young talent in place
4 Detroit Tigers-they haven't addressed the bullpen, but they have a lot of talent
5 Kansas City Royals-they should be in a better position, but they're not there yet
AL East
1 Boston Red Sox-such a balanced, experienced group, with youth, and they've added upside
2 Tampa Bay Rays-a very balanced group, with a solid bullpen great rotation potential
3 New York Yankees-they should be great, but now they're the ones stuck in a tough div.
4 Toronto Blue Jays-they took a hit and won't compete in this division, but they're good
5 Baltimore Orioles-they have young talent improving, but they're still a year or two away
NL West
1 Los Angeles Dodgers-if they get Manny, especially, but their pitching is weaker
2 San Francisco Giants-tough call, but some solid pitching should keep them in it
3 Arizona Diamondbacks-they seem to be stepping backwards, but they've got good youth
4 Colorado Rockies-not sure if they've got enough left to compete
5 San Diego Padres-they're not trying to compete in '09
NL Central
1 Chicago Cubs-a solid overall team, especially if they pick up another pitcher
2 St. Louis Cardinals-I think they're underrated, but it depends on health again
3 Houston Astros-they finished last year strong and have a shot
4 Milwaukee Brewers-if they don't bring back Sheets, their pitching could be rough
5 Cincinnati Reds-they're not balanced enough to compete
6 Pittsburgh Pirates-their perpetual rebuilding continues
NL East
1 New York Mets-with that rotation, the new bullpen arms, offense, defense, I say team to beat
2 Philadelphia Phillies-still very good, and their rotation is strong, but the Mets look better
3 Atlanta Braves-with some good seasons, they could be back in it, but there's ground to cover
4 Florida Marlins-they've got some real pitching, so they could easily find themselves in it
5 Washington Nationals-not ready yet
Wild cards right now to Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, with St. Louis close behind
Now, the plan is to go through each team, position by position, to get a better assessment. I in no way expect this ranking to stay the same by spring training. As a lifelong American League fan, I still feel that my National League knowledge is weaker, and so I'm especially looking forward to some serious study time with each roster.
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